LECTURE HUB
Lecture 4 - Conditional probability
🚦 Status🟣 Formatted
🧠 Mastery🐥 Apprentice
📅 Last Review18 May 2025
🎯KEY TAKEAWAYS
- P(flag given metal) and P(metal given flag) are different questions with different answers. Most arguments about data are someone swapping them.
- A tree for the order things happen in, a table for checking the tree.
- 📐 Expected value is probability times consequence, added up. It tells you the average over many goes, which is not the same as what to do once.
- 5 out of 10 on the quiz. The one I got wrong is the one I thought I understood.
⚡QUICK JOTS
- 18:35. same metal detector as two weeks ago. good, I know this one
- tree: what happens FIRST goes on the first branch
- given = you are already standing on that branch
- multiply along, add across
- 0.00099 / 0.02097. he did it on the board without a calculator, show-off
- P(A given B) is not P(B given A). underline twice
- expected value: probability × what it costs. scrap 300 vs ship 0.05 × 4,000
- three hands for shipping. mine was not one of them and I could not say why
- quiz: wrote 90. it was under 10. the table was IN MY BAG
☑️HOMEWORK
- Redo the medical-test question from 📌 Statistics I - Quiz 2 - Conditional probability as a tree
- Watch the conditional probability lecture in 00. Statistics 110 - Probability Hub
- Write 📐 Expected value as a formula note
- Hand in problem set 1 and the reading response