Estimated one-rep maximum
📐FORMULA
$$\text{1RM} \approx w \left(1 + \frac{r}{30}\right)$$
- w: the weight lifted, in kg
- r: the number of clean repetitions done with it
- 1RM: the estimated most I could lift once
The Epley estimate. It is a rule of thumb fitted to people in general, most trustworthy for sets of about two to ten reps, and vaguer the higher r goes. For a single rep it returns w × 1.033, which is already slightly wrong, so nobody uses it there.
Worked number. January, 🏋️ Back squat, 72.5 kg for 5:
- 72.5 × (1 + 5/30) = 72.5 × 1.1667 ≈ 84.6 kg
Bram's opinion of it. Bram Keller lets me write the number in the margin and will not let me believe it. In paraphrase: an estimate is not a lift; the bar does not read spreadsheets. He programmes 📂 Three strength blocks off how the last set looked and what I report on The effort scale as Bram uses it, and uses the formula only to check that a block is not drifting backwards.
On 17 November I squatted 85 for one. The January estimate said 84.6. That is not the formula being right for ten months. In January I could not have squatted 84.6; I could squat 72.5 five times, which is a different skill.